US Signs $700M F-35 Engine Deal With Turkey — NATO Pivot

The Trump administration has signed a $700 million F-35 engine deal with Turkey, the clearest signal yet that the US is reversing the 2019 expulsion that removed Ankara from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program after Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense system. The deal — covering Pratt and Whitney F135 engines for Turkish Air Force F-35A aircraft — restores Turkey as a participant in the most expensive weapons program in US defense history and repositions a critical NATO flank at a moment of heightened tension along NATO's eastern and southern borders.

Turkey is NATO's second-largest military by personnel. The Bosphorus Strait, which Turkey controls, is the only maritime passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. After years of diplomatic friction over the S-400 purchase, the $700 million engine contract marks a deliberate US choice to prioritize NATO cohesion and Turkish airspace access over the precedent set by the original expulsion.

What the F-35 Program Is and Why Turkey's Role Matters

The F-35 is the world's most advanced stealth multirole fighter jet, manufactured by Lockheed Martin and powered by the Pratt and Whitney F135 engine. The program involves nine partner nations — the US, UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, Norway, Canada, and historically Turkey — who share development costs and receive preferred pricing on aircraft.

Turkey was expelled from the program in July 2019 after it completed delivery of the Russian S-400 Triumf air defense system, which the Pentagon determined posed a risk of Russian intelligence collection on F-35 systems. The CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) framework imposed sanctions on Turkey's defense procurement agency as a consequence.

Turkey had been a significant industrial participant in the F-35 program before expulsion. Turkish defense companies produced approximately 900 F-35 component parts worth an estimated $12 billion in total contract value at full production. The expulsion removed Turkey both as a buyer of aircraft and as a parts supplier, forcing Lockheed Martin to find alternative suppliers for Turkish-made components.

What the $700 Million Deal Covers

The $700 million contract specifically covers F135 engines — the powerplant for Turkey's planned F-35A fleet. Engine contracts are structured separately from airframe contracts in the F-35 program. This sequencing matters: Pratt and Whitney delivers engines, and Lockheed Martin delivers airframes. Turkey ordering engines implies a corresponding airframe order is either already in negotiation or will follow.

Turkey had originally ordered 100 F-35A aircraft before the 2019 expulsion. The reinstated program is expected to begin with a smaller tranche — likely 30-40 aircraft — with an option to expand to the original 100 if the political relationship stabilizes.

The F135 engine costs approximately $14-17 million per unit depending on the production lot and the variant. A $700 million engine contract covers approximately 40-50 engines — consistent with an initial tranche of 20-25 aircraft (each aircraft uses one engine, but spare engines are included in any air force order at a ratio of approximately 1.5-2 engines per airframe for the operational fleet).

The S-400 Complication and What Changed

Turkey still possesses S-400 batteries. They are reportedly in storage and have not been operationally activated (under pressure from NATO members who feared operational S-400 systems would collect intelligence on NATO aircraft operations). The Trump administration's decision to sign the F-35 engine deal despite Turkey retaining the S-400 represents a pragmatic calculation: strategic access to Turkey outweighs the precedent of the S-400 expulsion.

Several factors shifted the calculus:

Black Sea access. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the ongoing conflict, Turkey's control of the Bosphorus has become the critical maritime chokepoint for Black Sea operations. Turkey has invoked the Montreux Convention to restrict warship passage, limiting both Russian and NATO naval movements. US policymakers have determined that a Turkey firmly in the NATO defense industrial ecosystem is strategically more valuable than a Turkey kept at arms length.

Russian threat recalibration. Russia's demonstrated weaknesses in Ukraine have reduced (though not eliminated) US concerns about the S-400's intelligence-collection threat. A system tied to a military that has struggled in conventional operations is assessed differently than one tied to a peer-level threat.

Turkish political shift. Turkey's domestic politics have shifted under successive elections toward greater alignment with Western positions on Ukraine, reduced public support for Russian partnership, and increased economic dependency on Western financial relationships. This gave Washington a negotiating partner willing to make the concessions necessary to re-enter the F-35 program.

Developer and Defense Tech Implications

The F-35 is as much a software program as it is a hardware program. The aircraft's ALIS (Autonomic Logistics Information System) and its successor ODIN (Operational Data Integrated Network) are cloud-based maintenance, diagnostic, and supply chain management platforms. Every F-35 in operation globally connects to these platforms.

Turkey returning to the F-35 program means:

• Turkish Air Force F-35As will be integrated into the ODIN network
• Turkish maintenance personnel will gain access to Lockheed Martin's classified maintenance data systems
• Turkish defense industrial participants may be reinstated to produce F-35 components, injecting Turkish manufacturing back into a supply chain that took years to replace

The defense tech supply chain angle: When Turkey was expelled in 2019, Lockheed Martin had to source alternative suppliers for approximately 900 part numbers. Some were found in the US, some in other partner nations, some in new qualified vendors. The reinstatement creates a supplier transition question: do those alternative suppliers get displaced by reinstated Turkish suppliers, or does the program maintain dual sourcing? The cost and schedule implications of that decision will work through the defense industrial base over the next 3-5 years.

AI in the F-35 program: Lockheed Martin has been integrating AI into the F-35's ODIN platform for predictive maintenance — identifying component failures before they ground aircraft. Turkey's integration into this platform extends the AI-driven maintenance network to a new operator nation with a different threat environment and operational tempo than existing partner nations. The training data implications (Turkish-specific wear patterns, threat exposures, mission profiles) expand the system's predictive capability globally.

NATO Cohesion Implications

The Turkey F-35 deal is a deliberate display of NATO cohesion at a moment when alliance unity matters. Turkey has been the NATO member most willing to maintain functional relationships with Russia — purchasing Russian weapons, refusing to join some Russia sanctions packages, positioning itself as a potential mediator in the Ukraine conflict.

Reintegrating Turkey into the F-35 program — the most visible symbol of NATO military capability — sends a message to Moscow that the alliance's second-largest military has firmly chosen the Western defense industrial base. It also strengthens NATO's southern flank at a time when the eastern flank (Poland, Baltics, Romania) is absorbing most alliance attention.

The $700 million figure is large enough to be symbolically significant but structured as a manageable initial commitment. Engine contracts are the opening move; airframe contracts, weapons integration, sustainment agreements, and industrial participation would follow in sequence over 3-5 years if the political relationship holds.

For context on how this fits into US-NATO defense industrial strategy: see our coverage of Grok AI's Pentagon deployment in military operations and the Leidos 21,000 job reduction as AI reshapes defense intelligence.

Key Takeaways

• $700 million F-35 engine contract signed with Turkey — covers Pratt and Whitney F135 engines for approximately 40-50 units, consistent with an initial 20-25 aircraft tranche
• Turkey was expelled from the F-35 program in 2019 after buying Russia's S-400 missile system; this deal effectively reverses that expulsion despite Turkey still retaining the S-400 batteries
• Strategic rationale: Black Sea access (Bosphorus chokepoint), Turkish political shift toward Western alignment, and reduced concern about S-400 intelligence risk drove the reversal
• NATO signal: Reintegrating NATO's second-largest military into the premier Western defense platform is a deliberate message to Moscow about alliance cohesion
• Defense tech supply chain: Turkish F-35 component suppliers may be reinstated, creating transition questions for the alternative suppliers brought in after 2019
• ODIN integration: Turkish F-35s will connect to Lockheed Martin's AI-driven maintenance platform, expanding the system's global training data with Turkish operational profiles